Shu said city | why this pig cycle “grind bottom” exceeded expectations?

2022-05-07 0 By

Pigs have typical cyclical, the industry generally four or five years a cycle, showing “prices, capacity expansion, oversupply, prices — to capacity” of the cycle, since last year, there are a lot of investors in the market, especially the seller agency analysts, is considered the most late in the first quarter of this year the pig cycle to get to the bottom, it is since that time,Pig stocks started a rebound, since this year, pig stocks have become a rare countertrend in the weak market plate, proud agricultural biology (603363.SH), Wen’s shares (300498.SZ) and other pig stocks have risen well, the highest rise even more than 100%.Pig stocks contrarian rise, in the secondary market is actually expected pig reach the bottom of the cycle of reaction, such as property, in fact, the relaxation of the policy is not reflected in the real estate enterprise assets profit and loss account, but the secondary market shares have launched, poly real estate (600048. SH) began to rebound, earlier gains all around 1.Capital market to a large extent speculation is expected, which is quite a test of investors’ forward-looking judgment.This column height on agricultural sector this year, basic logic, is the global inflation era, the final will be conductive to the agriculture, such as the conduction effect of higher oil prices, with prices of agricultural products, thus further cause the increase of crop planting area, and agricultural materials, including the increasing demand for materials such as chemical fertilizers, herbicides, and there is a lot of listed companies on the industry chain,Valuations are also cheap.So why is this cycle so long?Is now in the second quarter, the pigs cycle obviously did not reach the bottom, which is at the bottom of the region, the reasons behind, it is this round of pig cycle, enhance industry concentration, such as animal husbandry original stake (002714 SZ), its shares, new hope (000876 SZ) the large enterprises, is a scale, the scale effect is obvious,The head firms will certainly be more resistant to cyclical fluctuations, which will extend the time course for the pig cycle to reach the bottom.In the last round of pig cycle, there were a lot of retail investors, and the industry concentration was far less than today. Once the pig cycle went down, it was easy for the loss-making farmers to cut production capacity. Some farmers even killed the breeding sows directly and sold them as pork.Secondly, the last round of pig raising made a lot of enterprises rich. Pork is a rigid demand in China, and a lot of capital took a liking to this area. A large amount of capital entered the pig raising industry with the help of capital.At present, capital is hard to resist, except for a few head enterprises such as Makihara Shares, pig industry is basically a comprehensive loss, at this time, the competition is who has stronger financial strength, who has more powerful cash flow, who can withstand the “winter” of this round of pig cycle!From pigs for the industry, at present, one is the pork price basically is on a downward trend, the second is the upstream raw material, corn, soybean meal in inflation, compression of pig production enterprises is actually two sides, it may be said “double play” Davis, the extent of losses in the increase, in principle, in the pig industry accelerated at the end of the fact that that’s true, but more than market expectations,This “bottom run” will take much longer than previous pig cycles, and the core reason is the increase in industry concentration and the influx of capital mentioned above.So, to pig cycle stocks, haven’t reached the bottom of the real, the industry is still very clear, pig stocks still have great future investment opportunities, especially pig head enterprises, but after this wave of rebound, if the “bottom” still can’t see signs of pig stocks there will be a process of correction,In particular, the quarterly performance of pig enterprises will be very ugly, to this position, it is suggested that investors do not chase after the high concept of pig stocks.Wait until the adjustment, such as the range of 20% to 30%, or even only about 15% of the time, the concept of pig stocks from the cyclical bottom of the time is getting closer and closer, a wave of big market, will come!(According to the latest regulations of relevant state departments, the contents and opinions of this article are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. The risks of entering the market shall be borne by oneself.)Author Xiao Shu editor Yang Cheng (download red star news, there are prizes!